Monday 11 July
- -First-half results from MJ Gleeson
- -German wholesale price inflation
Tuesday 12 July
- -Full-year results from Purplebricks
- -British Retail Consortium data on UK retail sales
- -US NFIB smaller companies survey
While the consumer price and producer price inflation figures will grab headlines when they are published on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, AJ Bell financial analyst Danni Hewson thinks the NFIB smaller companies survey deserves close scrutiny.
“Over 29 million American businesses employ less than 500 people and their staff represent 99% of the total US workforce, so this survey provides an invaluable insight into a key component of the US economy,” she said.
“The last NFIB reading was 93.1. That was the lowest score since the pandemic panic of April 2020. Worse, the NFIB has gone below 95 just three times since 1985 and each time signalled a recession (the indicator got down to 96 in the 2001-02 downturn).”
This unease has been reflected in the Russell 2000, which is off by around a third from its high and “remains stuck in bear market territory,” Hewson added. “An upturn in the US NFIB and Russell 2000 would be a potentially encouraging indicator for any investor who is looking for a market bottom.”
- -In the US, quarterly results from PepsiCo
Wednesday 13 July
- -Trading statements from Pagegroup and JD Wetherspoon
- -Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- -UK manufacturing, construction and industrial output
- -US inflation figures
In May, the US consumer price index hit 8.6%, the highest readout since December 1981. This week the Federal Reserve said it may be forced to pursue “more restrictive” monetary policy if inflation fails to come down. Chair Jay Powell is set to approve another 50-75bps rate hike at the upcoming July meeting.
- -US oil inventory data
- -Federal Reserve Beige Book
- -Interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada
Thursday 14 July
- -Full-year results from Barratt Developments
Higher mortgage rates, “sagging consumer confidence” and the end of initiatives for first time purchasers like Help to Buy and the stamp duty holiday have all contributed to Barratt’s falling share price, which is down 40% from its January high, Hewson said.
On top of this, it has had to set aside £559m in remediation costs for cladding on buildings over 11 feet tall, which she notes is higher than any of the other quoted builders that have signed up to the government-backed pledge.
“It will be interesting to see how upbeat chief executive David Thomas and chief financial officer Mike Scott feel they can be. May’s update read well as the company confirmed it was on track toward its medium-term target of 20,000 completions a year, flagged a net cash balance sheet, fat order book and that earnings were set to meet expectations for the year to the end of June.”
- -Full-year results from Accrol
- –Ashmore Q4 AUM update
Shares in Ashmore are down nearly 30% year-to-date, which is not as bad as other rival fund groups. However, given its emerging markets focus, its strategies have been particularly vulnerable to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the previous quarter, its assets under management (AUM) declined by $9bn, $3.7bn of which was net outflows, largely from institutional mandates, and $5bn from negative market movements. Net outflows were highest in its blended debt and local currency funds.
- -Trading statements from Rio Tinto, Experian, Severn Trent, Hays and Galliford Try
- -German ZEW industrial sentiment survey
- -US producer price inflation
- -US weekly jobless claims
- -In Asia, quarterly results from TSMC
- -In Europe, quarterly results from LM Ericsson
- -In the US, quarterly results from JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Delta Airlines
Friday 15 July
- -Burberry Q1 trading update
In its last set of full year results, Burberry’s underlying revenue rose 23% to £2.8bn, 10% ahead of pre-pandemic levels. But analysts are pencilling in a 44.7% hit in Q1, said Sophie Lund-Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst, due to weaker consumer spending in China, one of the high-end retailer’s biggest markets, thanks to the country’s zero Covid policy.
“Burberry has more exposure to China than its peers – one third of the whole compared to a quarter for others,” Lund-Yates said. “It is predicted that the situation in Asia is going to take some time to unwind, so it’s unlikely to be an immediate road to recovery for Burberry.”
Hewson adds that any news on its £400m share buyback programme, due to be completed this fiscal year, as well as guidance on online versus physical sales and the impact of currency movements will be of interest to shareholders.
“Back in May, CEO Jonathan Akeroyd suggested that forex movements would add £159m to sales and £92m to adjusted profit, based upon the prevailing cross-rates of 6 May.”
- -Trading statement from DCC
- –Ninety One Q1 AUM update
The asset manager returned to net inflows for its 2022 fiscal year, taking in £5bn over the 12 months to 31 March 2022. This pushed AUM to a record £143.9bn and hoisted profits up 31% to £267.1m.
Despite geopolitical tensions brewing from the war in Ukraine, Ninety One saw net inflows across all asset types and client groups, with adviser appetite for global and thematic funds resulting in a big bounce back for equity funds.
However, CEO Hendrik du Toit admitted volatile trading conditions had taken a toll on fund performance.
- -Chinese monthly growth figures for tangible fixed asset investment, retail sales and industrial production
- -US retail sales
- -US industrial production and capacity utilisation
- -US business inventories
- -In Europe, quarterly results from Sandvik
- -In the US, quarterly results from Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon