Monday 20 June
- – Trading statements from Primark-owner Associated British Foods and SThree
- – German producer price inflation
- – UK GDP, manufacturing output and industrial production monthly growth
Tuesday 21 June
- – Full-year results from TelecomPlus and Yellow Cake
- – First-half results from Safestore
- – US existing homes sales
- – In the US, quarterly results from housebuilder Lennar
Wednesday 22 June
- – Full-year results from ProCook
- – First-half results from MicroFocus
- – UK inflation figures
“After last week’s central bank blitz, this time investors will be looking at the issue which is consuming policymakers, namely inflation,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and financial analyst Danni Hewson.
April saw the consumer price index (CPI) reach 9%, the highest mark since its inception in 1997. It hit 7% in March, up from 6.2% the month before, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The retail price index (RPI) came in at an eye-watering 11.1% in April.
Mould and Hewson added: “While RPI is no longer an officially recognised statistic, it does offer the longest dataset in the ONS’s archives. The last time RPI hit this level was February 1982 and the Bank of England base rate was almost 14% back then, way, way, way ahead of current levels.
“If history is any guide, the Bank of England is therefore way, way, way behind the inflationary curve.”
They continued: “Central bankers, politicians, investors, economists and the British public will benchmark these inflation figures against the wage growth numbers of Tuesday 14 June. They will also perhaps add the unemployment rate released on the same day to the inflation rate to get an update of the so-called Misery Index, an indicator created by economist Arthur Okun.
“The latest Misery Index score, for April, stood at 10.7, the highest since January 2013, but with inflation galloping higher that is likely to rise to levels not seen for over a decade.
“This may explain why the GfK UK consumer confidence indicator languishes at a record low. The reading for April was minus 40 which may be one reason why economists at the OECD, CBI, IMF and others are becoming progressively gloomier about the UK’s economic prospects,” Mould and Hewson said.
- – Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Washington DC
- – In the US, quarterly results from Winnebago
Thursday 23 June
- – Full-year results from Berkeley Group, Naked Wines and Marlowe
- – Trading statement from Serco
- – Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services in Europe, the UK and US
- – US weekly unemployment claims
- – US oil inventories
- – US bank stress test results (TBC)
- – In the US, quarterly results from Accenture, FedEx, Carnival and Darden Restaurants
Friday 24 June
- – Trading statement from Harworth
- – Japanese inflation
- – UK retail sales
- – German Ifo business climate survey
- – Belgian Courbe Synthetique business climate survey
- – US new homes sales
- – In the US, quarterly results from CarMax