Monday 10 October
- -Trading statements from Hollywood Bowl
- -First day of six of the annual International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington, DC
Tuesday 11 October
- -First half results from Sanderson Design
- -Trading statements from Reach and Marston’s
- -British Retail Consortium retail sales survey
- -US NFIB smaller companies survey
- -UK unemployment and wage growth data
The Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release the latest monthly unemployment and wage growth figures for the UK on Tuesday 11 October, covering the months of June to August.
According to AJ Bell’s investment director, Russ Mould, and financial analyst Danni Hewson, the data could have a significant impact on the Bank of England’s (BoE) next interest rate increase.
Mould and Hewson said: “The stronger the jobs market stays – and the faster wage growth gets, or the more entrenched lofty wage increases become – the more the BoE may be inclined to take interest rates higher than expected, faster than expected and then keep them there longer than expected.
“That said, markets are already pricing in a base rate of 5.5% by next March, way, way, way above the 2.25% level set by Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues at the September meeting.
“Ructions in the bond, currency, pensions and mortgage markets do, however, raise the question of whether the Bank will ever be able or willing to get that far with the tightening process before something else breaks, with potentially deleterious consequences.”
Job vacancies have fallen twice in a row, standing at 1.27 million at the last ONS update, exceeding the 1.22 million unemployment figure. Mould and Hewson said:” Some will jump on this as the first sign that the UK economy is heading into a wider slowdown.
“Others will say the big vacancies number will act as a buffer and help the Government and Bank of England engineer a soft landing, as the vacancies disappear before firms must start thinking about the terrible prospect of redundancies.”
Wednesday 12 October
- -Trading statement from QinetiQ
- -UK manufacturing, construction and industrial output
- -EU industrial production
- -US producer price (factory gate) inflation
- -In the USA, quarterly results from PepsiCo
Thursday 13 October
- -Trading statements from Entain, easyJet and Norcros
Easyjet will report a full year trading update on Thursday, with Q4 set to reflect the performance during the critical summer holiday period for the airline. Furthermore, the results could reveal signs of the cost-of-living crisis beginning to impact consumer behaviours.
Derren Nathan, Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst, said: “Easyjet has previously set an expectation that capacity for the quarter would nudge up to 90% of pre-pandemic levels from the 87% seen in the third quarter. It will be revealed if the expected improvements in load factor have materialised, and it would be good to see some guidance for bookings in this new financial year.
“With consumer confidence on the wane people will be looking for evidence as to whether forward bookings are starting to suffer and whether people are starting to pull back on extras such as food, luggage allowances and additional legroom. This is a highly profitable revenue line, which has enjoyed considerable growth since travel restrictions have eased.”
- -Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the construction industry in the UK
- -US consumer price inflation figures
- -US oil inventories data
- -US weekly unemployment claims
- -In Japan, quarterly results from Uniqlo-owner Fast Retailing
- -In the USA, quarterly results from BlackRock, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Domino’s Pizza and Delta Airlines
Friday 14 October
- -Trading statements from Mondi, Ashmore and Jupiter Fund Management
- -Chinese inflation data
- -US retail sales
- -In the USA, quarterly results from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup